2012 Super Bowl Ads. Predicting the Winners.

Just weeks away from Super Bowl XLVI and Super Bowl commercials are already getting buzz. Who will win the ad wars?

Here’s our perspective without the benefit of any research or review of the coming advertising spots. And what are our criteria for success in the Super Bowl? It’s not the funniest commercial or the one that packs the most special effects.

Our standard is always the same; the company that best integrates their core brand benefits within a simple message that breaks the clutter and speaks to the widest audience, wins. That’s it.

We have three predicted winners this year. One isn’t advertising during the Super Bowl broadcast and one isn’t an advertiser at all. Here we go:

Star Wars Dogs

Volkswagen’s much anticipated “Star Wars dogs” will win just by sheer force. They win because the force behind their creative throughout 2011 prepared them well for the big event February 5th.

Nobody has done a better job of speaking to their audience with clever, thought-provoking messages that hit brand attributes right over the head – like a hammer. Recent commercial hits like “Rocket Man” and “Test Drive” talk directly to upwardly mobile young professionals with a chuckle, a grin and a nod.

Our only hesitation in crowning Volkswagen Super Bowl champs is the overwhelming temptation to out-think and out-create one’s self in production. We really, really hope that Volkswagen looks closely at this year’s worth of base-hits and they don’t strike out trying to hit for the fences (sports analogies are necessary here).

One bit of advice for Volkswagen; remember that this is a big, big audience. Many of which aren’t as savvy and as smart as your brand usually demands. You might bring it down a notch and just touch a few new people willing to explore the Beetle.

Winning without Playing

Our second winner is Southwest Airlines. As of the date of this writing, Southwest had not yet bought a Super Bowl commercial and is probably still outside-looking-in. But do they qualify as an overall winner? You bet.

Fast-forward two weeks past the airing of the Super Bowl. Gather 10 of your work friends and ask them to review Super Bowl successes. But you provide the list of advertisers for ranking. In that list include Southwest Airlines. See if Southwest doesn’t get kudos from your crowd without spending $3.5 million on a 30-second spot.

This is part of Southwest’s marketing brilliance and why they get our vote for second place. Make-no-mistake, Southwest won’t be absent from everything that leads up to and surrounds the Super Bowl. But they won’t blow $3.5 million on one spot.

This is what Southwest’s brand is all about. This is the same airline that while others navigate the bankruptcy courts, has found a way to add a row of seats to their fleet without any loss of leg-room.

And when Southwest Airlines pops their head from behind the pre-game show or post-game interviews, they will be on-message.

Ask your impromptu focus group of co-workers, “what was the brand message within Southwest’s Super Bowl advertising” and you might just hear something like, “bags fly free.” That’s why Southwest Airlines makes our top-3 list of winners without even running a spot during the game.

What’s Old is New Again

Our last winner isn’t an advertiser at all. This year third-place goes to “traditional media” in all its forms, and specifically television advertising.

No doubt we will see integrated campaigns that tie traditional broadcast advertising with social media executions but clearly, in the case of Super Bowl advertising, one drives the other.

#SuperBowlAds.  #Volkswagen.  #GoDaddy.  #WhoWonTheGame?

Social media, online engagement and traditional brand messages are not mutually exclusive. The greater the integration of media delivery, the greater is the resulting integration and impact. But for several years now traditional media as been looked at as the grey-bearded uncle that was starting to lose touch with reality.

Then why does Super Bowl advertising command just as much attention and revenue dollars as ever? Advertising, in all its forms, has its place when done well, when done creatively and strategically.

So for holding their ground to the freshness of social media, we give traditional advertising our third-place award this year.

Small Business Footnote

Our followers and friends expect any blog from EAG Advertising to be a poignant conversation among small business owners. This article is no different.

Our message is pretty obvious. Marketing is not a sprint, it’s a marathon. This cheesy analogy simply means that those that play smart will win.

Small business advertising is hard. But if we continue to follow the smart brands, we can learn a thing or two. And we might see a good game along the way.